This has happened several times recently. One thing I know is that an instance of Paratext could be in memory but not visible on the screen. To check for this, open Windows Task manager by right clicking on the Windows toolbar. Usually Paratext when it was open appears in the first list of Apps. (In this example Paratext is not running).
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If the update is saying you need to shut it down but you don’t see it open and don’t see it in this list of Apps, look through the longer list of Background processes. If you don’t see the long “Background processes” list click the button at bottom right to show more details. Tip: you can click in that list and press “p” to go right to ones that begin with “P”. If you see Paratext here, select it and click “End task.” Now the installer should run.
I don’t know what makes Paratext start a background process, or stay on as a background process when you close it. But I do know that it happens, and others have reported it too.